Basket Village USA
Summary: The Dollar Index (USD / DXY) a popular gauge of the greenback value against one basket of 6 major currencies moved slightly lower, at 93.45 (93.53 Friday). Against the Antipode, Asian and Emerging market currencies however, the Dollar remained up for auction. The Australian dollar underperformed compared to Dollar, slide to 0.7135, not far from his 2021 bottom To 0.7105. Against the Yen, the Dollar easy to 109.74 of 109.78. Sterling fell 0.24% to 1.3622 (1.3636). The euro rallied at the end new York Trade close at 1.1700 of 1.1676 Friday. The USD / CAD the pair went mad, initially flying off to 1,2949, new highs for 2021, before tumble settle in 1.2822. Oil prices extended their sharp drop on Friday with the WTI almost lose 8% last week. Asian and Emerging market currencies mixed finish against the greenback. The USD / SGD pair relaxed to 1.3622 of 1.3635 while the USD / THB was the last to 33.35 (33.38 Friday). USD / CNH (offshore Chinese dollar-yuan) close at 6.5000 (6.5015).
Wall Street stocks increased slightly at the close of New York trade to Friday. The DOW was standing 0.5% To 35 109 (34 911). The S&P 500 got up to finish at 4,440 of his 4,410 open. Yields on US Treasury bonds remained stable. The 10-year benchmark rate increased 2 basis points to stand at 1.26% (1.24%). Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yields finished flat at 0.22%. The 10-year German Bund yield easy to -0.50% (-0.49%).
Data published Friday seen GFK consumer climate in the UK ease to -8 from -7, missing forecast to -7. Japan’s National Core CPI in July decreased to -0.2% compared to + 0.4%, beat the estimates at -0.4%. German PPI for July went to 1.9% from a previously revised upward version 1.3%. UK July Retail Sales slipped towards -2.5% of 0.2%, lack of expectations of 0.2%. UK public sector net borrowing slipped to –£ 9.6 billion, exceeding estimates at –£ 11.8 billion. Headline retail sales in Canada in June easy to 4.2% against forecasts at 4.4%. Basic retail sales climbed to 4.7% beat the estimates at 4.5%.
AUD / USD – Slippery, relentless selling pressure last week pushed the Aussie Battler to 0.7106 overnight and a new 2021 low before rebounding to 0.7135. Friday’s open was at 0.7150. Sydney’s extended lockdown saw a nighttime curfew imposed until the end of September.
USD / CAD – True to form, the greenback went wild against the Canadian loonie, climbing to 1.2949 before falling back to 1.2822, essentially where it started on Friday. WTI oil prices fell 2.55% on Friday, bringing its total loss to just under 8% for the week.
EUR / USD – Euro trading was again moderate. The shared currency edged up against the greenback to 1.1700 as trade close in New York. The EUR / USD pair opened at 1.1677 on Friday. The euro hit an overnight low at 1.1664.
GBP / USD – The British pound eased against the greenback to finish down 0.24% to 1.3622 (1.3635). Overnight, the UK currency traded low at 1.3597. UK retail sales in July missed expectations, falling to -2.5% from + 0.2% in June.
On the lookout: The coming week is busy in terms of economic calendar and events. The highlight is the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Economic Symposium, which begins Friday. The summit brings together central bankers and finance ministers from around the world. This year, most of the participants will be online. Meetings are closed to the press, but officials typically speak to reporters throughout the day. On some occasions in the past, speeches or comments from central bankers and other influential officials have created significant volatility in the markets.
Data kicks off today with August Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for Australia, Japan, Eurozone (France, Germany), Eurozone, United Kingdom and United States . Most forecasts point to an easing of the two PMIs due to the increase in coronavirus cases around the world. The euro zone publishes its Flash Consumer Confidence for August (f / c -5 against -4.4 – ACY Finlogix). The UK publishes its CBI (Confederation of British Industry) industrial order forecast for August (f / c at 16 from 17 – Finlogix). US releases Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July (no f / c value given, previous one was 0.09). Existing US home sales in July round out today’s reports – (f / c 5.81 million vs. 5.86 million).
Other relevant economic data released this week are the IFO business climate in Germany (Wednesday August 25), preliminary US second quarter GDP (Thursday August 26) and the US PCE price index (Friday August 27).
Commercial perspective: After rallying last week on tap talk, the dollar paused, finishing half-hearted against its rivals. The Dollar Index (USD / DXY) was down 0.12% to 93.45 from 93.53 on Friday at the opening. USD / DXY climbed to 93.73 which was the night and week high. Traders took profits and adjusted their positions ahead of this week’s Jackson Hole summit amid a resurgent Delta variant. US bond yields have remained stable despite the likelihood of a start to decline later this year. The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose 2 basis points to end the week at 1.26%. A week ago, the US 10-year rate closed at 1.28%. Which is still far from its peak at 1.36% (August 13).
This consolidated mode of negotiation is expected to continue today until the publication of global PMIs later. Any big surprise could move the currencies.
AUD / USD – Australia’s downfall continued unabated as the country’s strict lockdown extended. Sydney has seen 2 consecutive days of out of 800 Covid-19 cases. A 9 am-5pm curfew for those living in areas of local government concern as well as nationwide masks nationwide. exterior were imposed over the weekend. AUD / USD hit a 2021 overnight low of 0.7106 from its 0.7150 open on Friday. The night traded high was 0.7156. The Aussie rebounded to close at 0.7135 this morning. The Australian Battler lost almost 3.2% last week. Immediate support is at 0.7100 followed by 0.7070. Immediate resistance can be found at 0.7160 and 0.7200. Probable range today 0.7110-0.7180. You prefer to buy dips, the Australian market is well oversold.
(Source: Finlogix.com)
USD / CAD – The Canadian currency went really crazy on Friday in the context of North American trade. The Canadian dollar has been known for this type of choppy market several times in the past. Friday was a reminder of those good old days. USD / CAD traders were known to be nuts. USD / CAD has immediate support at 1.2800 (overnight low at 1.2803). The next level of support is at 1.2760. Immediate resistance is at 1.2860 followed by 1.2900 and 1.2950. Look to trade a likely range today of 1.2810-1.2910. Just swap the range shag on this one today.
EUR / USD – The Euro had a moderate trading session and settled slightly higher against the greenback at 1.1700 since Friday’s opening at 1.1677. The overnight low traded was 1.1664. EUR / USD peaked at 1.1704 overnight. Immediate support can be found at 1.1660 followed by 1.1630. Immediate resistance for today is at 1.1710 followed by 1.1740. Look for consolidation in a likely range today between 1.1670-1.1720. Look at the euro area and euro area PMIs. Most should subside from previous results. A better-than-expected result could squeeze out the euro shorts.
GBP / USD – The British pound fell to 1.3622 at the New York close from its 1.3636 open on Friday. UK retail sales fell -2.5% from the previous 0.2%, missing the median estimate of 0.2%. GBP / USD traded overnight low at 1.3597. Immediate support for the day is at 1.3600 followed by 1.3570. Immediate resistance can be found at 1.3640 (overnight high at 1.3641) followed by 1.3670 and 1.3700. Look for a consolidation of the British Pound in a probable range today between 1.3600 and 1.3700. Prefer to buy dips. Speculators are running out of books and upset could happen.
