Currency Area – Basket Village USA Fri, 01 Jul 2022 11:54:15 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Currency Area – Basket Village USA 32 32 The euro starts strong in July against the pound, but faces an increasingly difficult outlook Fri, 01 Jul 2022 09:40:06 +0000
  • Eurozone CPI Burns, Supports Euro
  • Market already bearish on UK and GBP
  • But the euro could be on the verge of a sentiment downgrade
  • As Barclays predicts a winter recession
  • Berenberg agrees, citing the M1 money supply lockdown

Image ©Adobe Images

The euro strengthened in the first trading session of July as investors digested inflation data that showed prices in the eurozone continued to rise, raising bets for a move. from the European Central Bank, but the single currency faces a tough outlook as some economists warn of an impending recession.

The euro outperformed the pound on the day Eurostat revealed that eurozone CPI inflation stood at 8.6% year-on-year in June, up from 8.1% in May and beating expectations of a reading of 8.4%.

Italy reported a significant 1.2% jump in prices during the month of June, beating expectations for growth of 0.6%, bringing the year-on-year change to 8.0%.

It comes after Spain reported that its CPI growth hit a record 10% year-on-year in June.

The data is mounting pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates and a significant 50 basis point hike in July can no longer be ruled out. The exchange rate between the pound and the euro fell half a percent overnight to stand at 1.1550.

Currency and money market reactions and price responses suggest that overall this supports the Euro.

“A few weeks ago I argued that the ECB could not exit negative rates all at once because of the impact it would have on financial stability. But with rates and bond markets now properly primed, there seems to be no excuse for pulling the trigger to 50 basis points,” says Simon Harvey, head of research for Monex Europe.

Inflation may now support the euro, but it could soon turn into a real headwind as it dampens growth and pushes the eurozone economy into a period of stagflation.

Barclays economists this week revised their economic forecast for the eurozone and now say they expect a eurozone recession by winter.

“We expect below-consensus growth in the euro zone over the summer and a recession in the winter, based in part on falling real incomes,” said Mark Cus Babic, macro research analyst at Barclays.

A downward recalibration of eurozone growth expectations against the UK could ultimately support the exchange rate between the pound and the euro as currency markets continue to observe the differing fortunes of major economies.

NatWest Markets economists said earlier this month that the pound’s continued decline against the dollar and euro reflected economists’ pessimism about the UK’s economic growth outlook for 2023.

This is summarized in the chart below detailing changes in economists’ expectations for growth in 2023:

Peak of pessimism towards the GBP

Above: Consensus GDP expectations for 2023. Source: Bloomberg, Natwest.

NatWest currency strategist Paul Robson said last week he believed the peak of pessimism over the UK economy and the pound was now potentially reached, leaving the euro more exposed to the downside if growth forecasts of the euro zone are revised downwards.

Barclays says eurozone households have saved more of their income during the pandemic, but the savings rate is now close to its pre-crisis level, leaving little cushion for consumers as they are affected by soaring prices.

They find that, in the case of Germany, the excess savings that consumers can fall back on in the face of rising inflation is now effectively zero.

“It’s not because German households decided to spend excess cash, since they were still accumulating financial assets (cash plus other) at about the same rate as the whole EA. Instead, in the face of bloated bank balances, Germans hoarded cash at a lower rate than before the pandemic and diverted that money to the stock market, bringing the cash balance closer to its pre-pandemic trend. pandemic,” says Babic.

Barclays has significantly lowered its euro zone real GDP growth forecast for 2023 and expects a technical recession to be in place by the end of the year in all countries.

Berenberg Bank economists, meanwhile, say M1 money supply in the eurozone is now flashing red.

“Over the past 30 years, no chart or model has served us better in predicting Eurozone growth than a look at the currency. Real money supply M1 often heralds major turning points in the business cycle around two to three quarters ahead. Unfortunately, the chart’s message is clear: judging by the real value of the very liquid balances of households and non-financial corporations, the euro area is heading for a slowdown,” says Holger Schmieding, Economist chief at Berenberg.

M1 and probability of recession

A recession early in the year would mean that the European Central Bank has a very limited window to raise interest rates in an effort to bring down inflation.

The fall in expectations of an ECB rate hike would in turn weigh mechanically on the euro and provide support for the GBP/EUR parity, all other things being equal.

Underlining the importance of relative growth expectations for exchange rates, the euro’s decline last week following the release of PMI data which showed the eurozone economy slowed sharply in June due to the slower demand growth.

The Eurozone Composite PMI came in at 51.9, meaning the Eurozone economy was about to fall below the key 50 level, which marks the boundary between growth and recession. contraction.

“The subcomponents of the survey suggest a dip below this level in the coming months,” says economist Giovanni Zanni of NatWest Markets.

2022 NatWest Truck Mileage

Above: “Real-time indicators point to a slowdown in the second quarter,” says NatWest, citing the ability of truck mileage data to indicate the health of the economy.

Meanwhile, the equivalent UK PMI data came in above expectations which supported the pound against the euro.

If the market continues to downgrade Eurozone growth expectations over the next few days and weeks, Euro weakness could evolve, especially against the Pound, as UK economic sentiment may have already reached its peak of negativity.

“Admittedly, the economic outlook in the UK looks increasingly difficult as price hikes, particularly for fuel and energy bills, hit consumers’ wallets. But the economy is expanding, the Labor markets are tight and prices are rising, so we still expect the Bank of England (BoE) to rise four times more before the end of the year,” says Thomas Flury, strategist at UBS.

UBS expects the euro-pound to trade around 0.85 for the rest of the year, or 1.1765 in pound-euro terms. (Set your exchange rate alert here).

Pune: Rs 1 crore pledged, trader sent game notes labeled ‘Children’s Bank of India’ Wed, 29 Jun 2022 18:23:20 +0000 A 52-year-old trader from Pune has been defrauded of Rs 35 lakh after three suspected fraudsters promised to give him Rs 1 crore in Rs 500 denomination of new series and instead gave him gambling notes marked as ‘Children Bank of India”.

An FIR in the case was registered at Lashkar Police Station on Tuesday by the trader who has a business in the Pune Camp area. According to his complaint, he came into contact with three people during the last week of May. The suspects said they were in possession of new series Rs 500 banknotes and they could give him two notes for one Rs 500 note of notes in circulation.

Investigators said that as the trio gained the complainant’s trust, they managed to strike a deal with him to give Rs 1 crore in “new banknotes” for Rs 50 lakh of outstanding banknotes of 500 rupees.

They first took Rs 20 lakh from him and then called him to Bhuj in Gujarat. In Bhuj, the suspect further took Rs 15 lakh from the complainant saying that he would deliver Rs 1 crore in Rs 500 banknotes of the new series.

During the second week of June, the Complainant received a bag from one of the suspects and left his office. Assistant Inspector Harish Shilamkar, who is investigating the case, said when the complainant opened the bag, it contained game notes that read “Children’s Bank of India” or “Bhartiya Bachchon Ka Bank” for 500 points .

After several unsuccessful attempts to contact the suspects, the complainant finally approached the police. Police recorded an offense under the IPC sections relating to criminal breach of trust and cheating. A search has been launched for the suspects.

In June 2020, a joint operation by the Military Intelligence (MI) Southern Command Liaison Unit (SCLU) and Pune City Police Criminal Branch teams led to the discovery of huge piles of game notes in Indian and American currency. face value of Rs 87 crores in a bungalow in the locality of Sanjay Park in the Vimannagar region of Pune. The action had led investigators to an elaborate network of crooks and mules employed to “distribute” this fake money in exchange for real money through multiple modus operandi.

Weekly waves: GBP/USD, US30 and Bitcoin Mon, 27 Jun 2022 02:23:46 +0000

Dear traders,

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the GBP/USD 4-hour chart, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin 4-hour chart and the US30 daily chart.

Bullish GBP/USD price swing in wave 4?

The GBP/USD made a bullish swing of 500 pips. But despite the sharp rise, the price action is technically still in a downtrend. Let’s review:

  1. GBP/USD broke below the 1.20 round level but the bulls regained control quickly and unexpectedly.
  2. The bullish price swing, however, appears to consist of an internal ABC pattern (yellow) within wave A (green).
  3. Our Elliott Wave analysis therefore favors a bearish ABC (yellow) within wave B (green).
  4. Wave B (green) could reach 78.6%, 88.6% or even the previous low (100%).
  5. A larger ABC (green) bullish correction could complete a wave 4 (pink). This remains valid as long as the price action stays below the wave 1 low.
  6. A break above the 1.2475-1.25 resistance zone would indicate a potential trend reversal or retracement.
  7. A new downtrend could see targets at 1.1850, 1.1750, 1.1650 and 1.15.

BTC/USD struggling to find bullish legs?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) hit the -27.2% Fibonacci target around the round psychological level of $20,000. Let’s review the following for the main cryptocurrency:

  1. BTC/USD is attempting to construct a bullish retracement but price action remains hesitant to move away from the 20k area.
  2. However, it looks like the price action will complete a bullish ABC (green) in a choppy correction from wave 4 (pink).
  3. The most logical target for wave C (green) of wave (pink) is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, but sometimes price action can retrace deeper.
  4. An upside break above the trend line (orange) and the 78.6% Fibonacci level renders the current bearish Elliott Wave analysis unlikely and invalid.
  5. A choppy and long bullish correction is typical of a wave 4 and would confirm this expected wave pattern.
  6. The downside target for wave 5 (pink) wave 5 (grey) wave A (purple) is around $17,500. A larger Wave B pattern could emerge from a larger ABC once Wave A is over.

US30 Large Whipsaw but bearish remains in control

The US30 made a strong bullish bounce at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level:

  1. The bullish rebound from the US30 could indicate a larger potential upside correction.
  2. The price action, however, remains in a downtrend and the bullish bounce is likely a retracement.
  3. The downside correction likely completed an A or W (pink) wave of a larger ABC or WXY (pink) correction.
  4. If price action sets a higher low, then a bullish ABC (green) in wave B or X (pink) could see price action move towards resistance trend lines (orange).
  5. A bearish bounce and a continuation of the downtrend should emerge in a broad complex wave 4 (blue).

NYSE-Powered ETF Leaders: Amplify’s Christian Magoon Sat, 25 Jun 2022 19:05:05 +0000

As with many ETF issuers who sat down with NYSE’s Judy Shaw for ETF Leaders, powered by the New York Stock Exchange, Amplify CEO Christian Magoon quoted “The I Word,” aka inflation, as one of the biggest challenges facing investors in 2022.

“Inflation is all over the news,” Magoon told Exchange: An ETF Experience 2022, adding that he not only sees “the negative impact on our portfolios” but also “our portfolio, making the groceries, maybe fill up our car with gas”. , so we really believe that investors, for the first time in maybe 15 years, need to have a part of their portfolio that benefits from inflation.

As it happens, Amplify has an ETF that covers this. The Amplify Inflation Fighter ETF (NYSE Arca: IWIN) is an actively managed ETF that invests in asset classes that seek to benefit, directly or indirectly, from inflation.

Later in the discussion with Shaw, Magoon explained that due to rising rates, “a lot of the growth in thematic opportunities hasn’t gone as well.” However, the Amplify chief noted that one way to continue engaging with thematics “is to look at government spending or government legislation,” and cited “two areas that stand out in a big way.”

The first area that Magoon finds “very attractive” is that of “electric vehicles and battery charging stations”. The other area is cannabis.

“A lot of institutions can’t invest now, but retail investors certainly can” check out the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (NYSE Arca: CNBS)the issuer’s “NYSE-listed Legal Cannabis ETF”.

“So those are two unique areas that don’t necessarily depend on interest rates, [but] more about government legislation and spending, which I think is a bit more predictable,” Magoon said.

Magoon also said he thinks digital assets “should be a part of investors’ portfolios,” but probably a small part.

“There are a lot of growth opportunities there,” Magoon said. “When we think of digital assets, we certainly think of bitcoin, but we also think of the underlying technology upon which bitcoin and digital assets are built, which is blockchain.”

Amplify to the ETF Amplify Transformational Data Sharing (BLOK)“the largest NYSE-listed blockchain ETF,” which he says is “a great way to get diversified access to this whole digital revolution.”

For more news, insights, and strategy, visit VettaFi.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Jed Hoyer’s latest comments have Cubs fans thrilled again Wed, 22 Jun 2022 17:00:00 +0000

Contrary to what the overwhelming majority of Cubs fans look like, I’m not quite ready to send Jed Hoyer back to the sun. Not yet. I think we have to take a wait-and-see approach until the next offseason, see if the team takes meaningful and substantial steps to improve and go from there.

That being said, I’m beyond frustrated. After learning that we weren’t going to be heading for another long and painful rebuild reminiscent of what we went through at the start of the Theo Epstein era, with each passing day and each loss to the Pirates, it looks more and more more to those dark days of a decade or so ago.

Hoyer held court last weekend at Wrigley Field with Chicago plummeting, losers of 10 straight contests, addressing a variety of topics and standing firm in his support for third-year manager David Ross, who recently drew anger of fans, namely for his constant trotting out of Jason Heyward every night.

The Cubs president of baseball operations spoke with 670 The score Tuesday, hitting a ton of the same talking points — which, unfortunately, didn’t do much to give us any real idea of ​​what the months and years to come will look like.

“When it comes to timing, I feel like that’s an area where I have to be humble,” Hoyer told Mully & Haugh. “As cliché as it is sometimes, you try to build it brick by brick and create this great base of young talent. You try to keep as much of the dry powder as financially possible so that when those (prospects) are there, you can really maximize that…. You have a financial currency and you have a prospecting currency. It’s really important to be as healthy as possible in both cases. I know the money will be there when the time comes to be aggressive again.

Now, obviously, Hoyer can’t boldly state that the gloves are going to come off this winter and the team’s payroll will top $200 million. It would be a bullish and short-sighted move on his part. After all, you know the league executives would be to like this information because it would dramatically change the landscape of free will this winter.

Cubs waiting for leads to grow won’t fly with fans

But many of his comments and responses simply lack clarity and are totally dependent on the organization’s successful development of prospects in its revamped and reloaded agricultural system.

“You have a financial currency and you have a prospecting currency,” Hoyer said. “It’s really important to be as healthy as possible either way…I know the money will be there when the time comes to be aggressive again.”

It’s problematic because your best player prospect, the one who looked like he could make his big league debut in 2022, is out for the year after undergoing back surgery at Brennen Davis. Another prospect, Ed Howard, is in a similar situation after suffering a serious hip injury earlier this year.

Former top prospects Miguel Amaya and Brailyn Marquez must now be viewed as total question marks given their later years, subtracting more of that “core” that Hoyer will want to see grow from his mix of prospects. And if the Cubs are really waiting for their young talents to prove themselves and show they’re ready for the big leagues, then playing with guys like Heyward is, at this point, more indefensible than ever.

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Watching the Cubs snap that 10-game losing streak to go to Pittsburgh and get outscored 19-2 in the first two games at PNC Park is so on the mark for this team right now, it’s not even funny. Fangraphs projected the Cubs 68-94 this year; if I was a bettor, I’m beating the underside on this win total right now.

Hometown Heroes: ‘Friendship, love, truth’ – a guiding motto for Epsom’s David Lent Sun, 19 Jun 2022 23:12:39 +0000

He can’t speak for the Freemasons, but when it comes to the Odd Fellows, David Lent of Epsom promises that there is no clandestine and infamous message hidden somewhere in the currency of the United States.

The NEOFA (North East Odd Fellows Association) Camp Director has spent nearly 30 years immersed in the Odd Fellows community, tirelessly promoting the annual summer camp and spreading the selfless ideas that the Odd Fellows have stood for for 200 years.

According to historical documentation, his core belief is “friendship, love, truth”.

“At the time, it was to help widows and orphans,” said Lent, who is 68. “We were educating them and burying the indigent and bringing relief to the distressed.”

Its reputation as a secret organization with something to hide has faded over the years, reflecting the backlash Masons have occasionally received since the 18th century.

“There are only a few things that are secret, the signs and the passwords,” Carême said. “But you can find the whole thing on the internet and find our rituals and all the words. We are not secret about anything. It’s a secret society only because nobody knows anything about us.

The Odd Fellows umbrella covers assisted living facilities, nursing homes and nursing homes. Camp NEOFA, however, does not receive the same type of funding as residential care, which means Lent struggles each year to attract campers and donations to keep the camp afloat.

That’s why Epsom resident Kevin McCarthy nominated Lent for Hometown Hero recognition, noting that his work at camp, unmatched by anyone, is done on a voluntary basis.

“Dave has been incredibly generous with his time as a member of the Odd Fellows,” McCarthy wrote in an email to Monitor. “He has worked tirelessly to ensure that Camp NEOFA in Maine is open to hundreds of underprivileged children and teens each summer. He does everything from organization, fundraising, camp maintenance and any other thankless chores that need to be done.

The camp opened in 1957 in Montville, Maine after the Odd Fellows Northeast Chapter purchased a whorehouse in the area from the town for $1 and agreed to maintain it. This gave Camp NEOFA control of a swimming pond and $225,000 was raised to hire engineering and construction companies to build it.

Lent, who is chairman of the board of directors of Presidential Oaks, a nonprofit retirement community, began volunteering at Odd Fellows camp in the 1990s. He controlled all facets of the camp and its upkeep once he retired from AIG Insurance in 2007, simply because he was the only individual willing to commit full time.

There are 12 cabins, each able to accommodate eight campers and two monitors. There is no electricity in the cabins, so flashlights are used.

The camp includes waterfront, kayaking, canoeing, arts and crafts, archery, nature trails, kickball and soccer. Carême said government grants helped fund the camp, as well as private donations. Still recruiting, he said the weekly price of $400 was well below the cost of most other summer camps.

“Cheapest around,” Lent said. “No fancy stuff like the YMCA.”

The camp begins July 3 and lasts four weeks. Lent says there are still openings, both for campers and counselors.

Meanwhile, his volunteer work begins each summer about six weeks before camp opens, and Lent will definitely depart for the summer program on June 26.

It will train advisors on safety and professionalism, fix the drains in the showers and fix the toilets. He will take care of frozen valves, water leaks, mice and squirrels, fallen branches and carpentry work.

Free of charge, of course.

“Wherever I’m needed,” Carême said. “That’s what I do.”

Introducing the Buna Payment Platform in the Middle East and Africa Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:01:15 +0000

Buna is the payment system that aims to transform the Arab world across the Middle East and Africa (MEA). But what is it exactly and how has it evolved?

Property of the Arab Monetary Fund

The Arab Monetary Fund (MFA) is a regional Arab organization headquartered in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE). Founded in 1976 and launched a year later, it currently has 22 member countries in the MEA region: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

According to its website, its mission and vision are to “strengthen economic, financial and monetary stability and the development process” and “to lay the monetary foundations of Arab economic integration and promote economic development in Arab countries. “.

Its main objectives include:

  • Correct imbalances in the balance of payments of Member States.
  • Seek to remove restrictions on current payments between Member States.
  • Establish policies and modes of Arab monetary cooperation.
  • Advise, whenever called upon, on policies related to the investment of Member States’ financial resources in foreign markets.
  • Promote the development of Arab financial markets.
  • Pave the way for the creation of a unified Arab currency.
  • Regulate current payments between Member States to promote intra-Community trade.

As I have written many times, the wider MEA region is experiencing massive economic development and diversification – much of it being driven by large-scale national strategies.

This extends to much of the Arab world – from Saudi Arabia to Egypt to Qatar, Tunisia and Oman – to name a few. Visible examples of this have been the growth and development of cities as regional and global centers such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

So, where are fintech and digital in the broad sense? There are several examples, but a clear example with regard to the implementation of cross-border payments in the Arab world is Buna.

What is Buna?

Buna is a multi-currency payment platform launched in 2020 that clears and settles cross-border payments in eligible Arab and international currencies in the Arab region and beyond, with links to major trading partners.

The Arab Monetary Fund currently has 22 member states spread across the Middle East and Africa region IMAGE SOURCE GETTY

It is the first regional cross-border, multi-currency payment system that supports Arab transactions in trade, investment and financial transfers.

In March of this year, Dr Abdulrahman bin Abdullah Al Hamidymanaging director and chairman of the board of the AMF, said that six currencies account for 90% of Arab transactions (the Emirati dirham (AED), the Saudi riyal (SAR), the Egyptian pound (EGP), the Jordanian dinar (JOD), the US dollar and the euro).

This is what Buna is all about – enabling financial institutions and central banks in the Arab region and beyond to send and receive payments in local currencies as well as major international currencies. By offering the various participants to participate, assuming that they respect and fulfill the criteria and conditions of participation, Buna complies with international standards, principles and compliance requirements.

As part of a broader integration of economic development in the Arab world, Buna presents the implementation of a broader vision to foster broader international trade and investment among Arab countries in the AME.

Main developments

The headquarters of the Arab Monetary Fund is located in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The headquarters of the Arab Monetary Fund is located in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) IMAGE SOURCE GETTY

First, the AMF and Standard Chartered Bank last year in June signed an agreement that Standard Chartered will serve as the settlement bank for the euro in Buna (the cross-border payment system owned by the AMF).

At the time, according to an AMF press release, the inclusion of the euro became the fifth settlement currency (previously it was the AED Emirati Dirham, the Saudi real SAR, the EGP and the ‘USD, the first non-Arab currency to be part of Buna).

The euro is the second most traded currency in the world after the US dollar and was expected to help further facilitate growing trade and investment flows and broader transactions between the Arab world and the European Union ( EU) and Europe as a whole.

Recently, in April this year, a workshop was held to elaborate on Buna’s preparations to begin providing cross-border euro payments services – attended by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB), Central Bank of Egypt (ECB) and the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System (PAPSS) – to name a few.

Speaking of PAPSS – Africa’s response to tangible integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) – signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Buna in April.

As there are currently active members of the AfCFTA and also members of the AMF such as Egypt – coupled with the historic and current broader trade and investment opportunities between the Arab world and Africa, the MoU he agreement aims to strengthen and foster collaboration between the two regions with digital cross-border payments. in this case.

In India, last March, Buna signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with NPCI International Payments Limited (NIPL), the international branch of National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), to support the growth of trade and investment flows between the Arab world and India. The objective of the MoU is to implement payment solutions, ultimately leading to interoperability between their instant payment services and allowing their participants to exchange cross-border payments instantly, securely and cost-effectively at any time – according to a press release.

Finally, other partners have also joined the Buna ecosystem. For example, in January of this year, First Bank of Abu Dhabi (FOB), one of the largest banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council Region (GCC) region, improved regional cross-border payment capabilities by implementing the Buna system.

FAB completed its first Buna transaction in EGP and will participate in other currencies offered by the system as part of its adoption.

Further economic integration of a region, in this case the Arab world with Buna, can lay the groundwork for new collaborations and stimulate economic development through international trade and investment.

Time will tell, but Buna looks promising for the future in a region that is quite diverse on its own – as can be seen in the payments space.

Speech by Paschal Donohoe after the Eurogroup meeting of June 16, 2022 Thu, 16 Jun 2022 22:50:13 +0000

I want to start by wishing you all a happy Bloomsday. Today, 100 years ago, James Joyce’s great masterpiece Ulysses was published in Dublin. To mark this special day in European and Irish literature, I presented each member of the Eurogroup with a copy of Ulysses in their own language. I was encouraged by the number of colleagues who said they had read it or were planning to read it.

The theme of our Eurogroup meeting today was resilience. The steps we are taking to strengthen the resilience of the euro going forward and the Eurogroup’s commitment to maintaining the resilience and robustness of the euro area under all circumstances.

Today, we have taken a number of decisions which are very tangible demonstrations of our commitment to this resilience and our desire to deepen it further. We have recommended, as a Eurogroup, that Croatia becomes the 20th member of our Euro family – a very clear signal about the strength of the Eurozone and its growing membership.

We also paved the way for the exit of the Greek economy from enhanced surveillance. And we agreed today on a plan of very concrete actions which will further strengthen our banking union.

I will say a word about each of these decisions today, and I will start with the discussion concerning Croatia. This discussion started with the Eurogroup welcoming the convergence reports published by the Commission and the ECB regarding the fact that Croatia met the necessary criteria for its economy to join the euro. Based on the convergence reports presented to us, the Eurogroup has now recommended that Croatia adopt the euro from 1 January 2023. I look forward to this recommendation being formally adopted by the Ecofin Council tomorrow.

This is a well-deserved achievement for Croatia, and it is recognition by the Eurogroup and the institutions of the European Union of the commitment and extraordinary work of Prime Minister Plenković, Minister Marić and all our colleagues of the Government of Croatia fulfilling all the necessary steps to join our common currency.

It demonstrates that the euro, which this year celebrates its 20th anniversary as a physical currency, is a union that is growing and will become stronger as it grows. It is first and foremost a symbol of how we use our integration and interdependence as a source of strength. And the Eurogroup’s decision to welcome Croatia into this family and Croatia’s determination to join our group is a sign of this resilience.

Second, we had another sign of this resilience today when we discussed Greece’s progress in implementing its reforms and its macroeconomic outlook. The basis for this discussion was the 14th enhanced surveillance report presented by the Commission. We have seen the very impressive resilience of the Greek economy, even in the face of the shocks of a pandemic, forest fires, earthquakes, and now the energy and human consequences of a war.

Despite all these many challenges, we see a continued commitment to the implementation of reforms within the Greek economy by the Greek government. And we see very clear signs of the growing resilience of the Greek economy.

We therefore welcomed the assessment by our institutions that the necessary conditions are now in place to confirm the release of the 7th tranche of the contingent debt measures. These measures amount to 748 million euros, and you will find all the details of this decision in the statement I published earlier on this subject.

Given the progress made by Minister Staikouras, the Greek government and the Greek people, we today welcomed the intention of the European Commission not to extend the enhanced surveillance of the Greek economy after the end of the program expires. august.

This is a very important achievement by the Greek government, the Greek people and – combined with the earlier abolition of capital controls, combined with the full repayment of IMF loans – another clear signal of the return to normality for the Greek economy and the continued progress made in economic policy since 2010, and in particular under the current Greek government. This was recognized as a historic moment by the Eurogroup during the presentation of the progress made by Minister Staikouras.

And then finally, as a third sign of the resilience of our efforts, we reached agreement on a new step towards banking union. I argued in favor of completing the banking union. The statement issued by the Eurogroup this evening underlines the commitment to complete, at the right time, the banking union. You can’t complete a project if you don’t take every opportunity to strengthen it step by step. This is what the Eurogroup agreed on this evening.

We agreed on an action plan. What we have seen here tonight after a huge amount of work is an example of how Europe works. I am privileged to hold a role for Europe and have advocated for broader and more important collective action. But what the Eurogroup has done today is to agree on a step that will be a clear and strong improvement on where we are today. This is how our economic union works and this is how we will make further progress on the banking union.

This evening, we have agreed to strengthen the common framework for managing banking crises as well as the rules for using national deposit guarantee funds. The Commission will present a proposal in this regard. The Eurogroup is politically committed to making this progress a reality.

This is a sign that we will gradually strengthen the banking union. We will move towards a full banking union in different phases.

We also had a discussion on the economic outlook. President Lagarde updated us on the ECB’s latest macroeconomic projections and related monetary policy decisions. Commissioner Gentiloni took stock of the Commission’s reflection on our position and with the uncertainty that we acknowledge.

What all the members of the Eurogroup have reaffirmed tonight is our commitment to take the necessary measures and political decisions to ensure the resilience of the euro area, and our confidence in the maintenance of this resilience. If we look at the progress made in implementing the recovery plan, if we look at the employment levels within the euro zone, we believe that these are very solid bases for the way the euro will navigate through changing economic conditions.

Finally and briefly, we took stock of the post-programme surveillance reports for Spain, Cyprus, Portugal and Ireland and the Eurogroup also adopted its work program for the second semester.

I also had the pleasure earlier today of chairing the annual meeting of the Board of Governors of the ESM. It was a symbolically important meeting in more ways than one: 10th anniversary of the functioning of the ESM, it is the last meeting with Klaus Regling at the head of this institution. I thank him for his enormous work.

Together with my fellow governors, I will soon resume the process to appoint his replacement. We took another step towards that today, but we still have work to do.

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Where is the Muslim community going? Wed, 15 Jun 2022 07:15:00 +0000

Hyderabad: Not so long ago, the royal city of Hyderabad was famous for its communal harmony, generosity and spirit of helping one another in times of adversity. But sadly, an evil eye has cast its spell as the city has been making headlines lately for all the wrong reasons. Three recent incidents indicate where the city is heading.

In the first incident, four members of a poor family – husband and wife and two minor children – committed suicide last month by drowning in a lake in the town of Adibatla, on the outskirts of the city, due to extreme poverty and financial hardship.

In the second incident, a super-rich family allegedly threw 500 banknotes in the air during the wedding procession and as video of the incident went viral, the police registered a case.

In the third incident, underage boys from some wealthy families in the upscale Jubilee Hills neighborhood were involved in a gang rape of an underage girl.

The first incident did not get the attention it deserved. Here, a whole family of four committed suicide, including two minor children who did not know the meaning of suicide or death. Neither the public nor the authorities have discussed this harrowing incident.

About the second incident, not only the general people but even the Muslim scholars are silent on the naked display of extravagance when some members of a super rich family threw the high value banknotes in the air .

Likewise, there is no talk of why underage children from wealthy families committed a heinous crime like gang rape.

It is high time that not only the people, but also Islamic scholars and imams sensitize the people to honest behavior of the community by refraining from extravagance in marriage and other ceremonies. The rich must be sensitive to the plight of the poor because there are families who cannot celebrate the marriage of their daughters due to extreme poverty and financial difficulties. In fact, they struggle hard in their daily lives to make ends meet. In such a situation, the naked display of extravagance by the super-rich can discourage the poor.

Likewise, it is the duty of parents, teachers and Islamic scholars to inculcate good values ​​and a philosophy of good behavior in adolescents. They must be educated to abstain from bad associations, vices and habits.

EUR/USD nears yearly low with Fed rate hike at hand Tue, 14 Jun 2022 00:30:00 +0000

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD is trading towards a new monthly low (1.0400) as it extends last week’s series of lower highs and lower lows, and the exchange rate looks set to test the yearly low (1.0349) as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to apply higher interest rates on June 15th.

EUR/USD nears yearly low with Fed rate hike at hand

EUR/USD has depreciated around 3% since the beginning of the month as US Treasury yields hit new yearly highs, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision could keep the rate exchange rate under pressure as the central bank is expected to deliver another 50 basis point rate hike.

With that in mind, the U.S. retail sales report update could generate a limited reaction, as the Fed is expected to update the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and a change in the forward guidance of the monetary policy is likely to influence the exchange rate. markets as the central bank warns that “a restrictive policy stance may well become appropriate depending on how the economic outlook changes.”

As a result, the US dollar could continue to outperform its European counterpart if the President Jerome Powell and Co. continue to raise their longer-term forecast for the federal funds rate, but EUR/USD may try to defend the yearly low (1.0349) should the central bank maintain the current course of monetary policy.

In turn, more of the same from the FOMC could generate a mixed reaction on EUR/USD as the European Central Bank (ECB) shows greater willingness to shift gears in 2022, but tilting sentiment Retailers looks set to persist as traders have been net long on the pair for most of the year.

Image of IG client sentiment for the EUR/USD rate

The IG Customer Opinion Report shows 68.58% of traders are currently long fillet EUR/USD, with the ratio of long to short traders upright at 2.18 to 1.

The number of net long traders is 1.81% higher than yesterday and 12.16% higher than last week, while the number of net short traders is 3.46% higher than yesterday. yesterday and 26.05% lower than last week. The rise in net buying interest fueled crowded behavior as 57.33% of traders were net long EUR/USD at the start of the month, while the drop in net position at the selloff comes as the exchange rate trades at a new monthly low. (1.0400).

That said, EUR/USD may continue to dig a series of lower highs and lower lows over the next few days as the Fed is expected to put in place higher interest rates, and a move below 30 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is likely to be accompanied by further decline in the exchange rate like the price action seen earlier this year.

Daily EUR/USD rate chart

Image of the daily EUR/USD rate chart

Source: Commercial view

  • EUR/USD approaches yearly low (1.0349) after testing the 50-day SMA (1.0656) for the first time since March, and the exchange rate may continue to follow the negative slope of the moving average as it reveres price action after the string of failed attempts to test the May high (1.0787 ).
  • The break/closure under the Handle 1.0500 (100% expansion) open it 1.0330 (161.8% extension) to 1.0370 (38.2% extension) Region, which lines up with the 2003 low (1.0334)with the next area of ​​interest around 1.0070 (161.8% expansion).
  • will keep a close eye on Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it runs into oversold territory, with a break below 30 in the oscillator likely to be accompanied by further decline in EUR/USD like the price action seen earlier this year.
  • However, EUR/USD’s recent series of lower highs and lower lows could break down if it fails to break/close below the Region from 1.0330 (161.8% expansion) to 1.0370 (38.2% expansion)with a displacement above the Handle 1.0500 (100% expansion) bringing the 1.0640 zone (78.6% expansion) back to the radar.

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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