America’s finest housing-inflation bubbles with WTF peaks in Seattle and Los Angeles

But condo prices in the San Francisco Bay Area have fallen again year on year, and in New York City, they have been stable for years.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The national average doesn’t do justice to the madness in some housing markets, but it’s pretty crazy: House prices are up 13.2% from a year ago, the biggest increase since December 2005 , on the eve of it all coming off from 2006 The National Case-Shiller Home Price Index today is based on a three-month average of sales recorded in public records in January, February and March. This is the time chosen.

“House price inflation.”

The Case-Shiller Index is based on the “pair sales method”, comparing the selling price of a house in the current month to the price of the house. same house when it was sold previously. Home improvements are taken into account. The index tracks the amount of dollars it takes to buy the even house over time. This makes the index a measure of house price inflation. And that’s what we’re looking for, not a miracle, but house price inflation.

The March Queen of Home Price Inflation: Seattle.

Home prices in the Seattle subway soared 4.7% in March from February, the largest monthly increase in house price inflation in data dating back to 1990, after climbing 2.8 % in February from January, to create a new WTF moment. Year over year, the index climbed 18.3%, the third highest annual home price inflation on this list, after Phoenix (+ 20.0%) and San Diego (+ 19, 1%). Housing prices have more than tripled (+ 215%) since January 2000:

The queen of long-term house price inflation: Los Angeles:

Prices for single-family homes in the Los Angeles subway jumped 2.3% in March from February and 13.4% year over year. The overall index value for Los Angeles of 333 indicates that house prices have skyrocketed 233% since January 2000, despite collapsing in the middle, making Los Angeles the nicest real estate bubble on this list. .

There has been a big divergence in recent years, following the same formula during the housing bubble 1 before it imploded:

  • Low-level house prices (black line) have skyrocketed faster than others and quintupled since January 2000, for another time WTF. During housing bubble 1, they also collapsed the fastest and the most.
  • Top-tier house prices (green line) show slower price movements, both up and down, although they have also been climbing recently.
  • Condo prices (red line) have increased “only” by 6.6% year over year, less than half the rate for house prices:

San Francisco Bay Area: Everything climbs except the apartments.

The Case-Shiller Index covers five of the Bay Area counties: San Francisco, San Mateo (northern part of Silicon Valley), Alameda and Contra Costa (East Bay), and Marin (North Bay).

House prices were up 3.2% in March from February and 12.2% year over year. They have more than tripled since 2000 (+ 207%).

  • Prices for low and mid-range homes (black and blue lines in the graph below) have climbed more than 15%.
  • Premium prices (green line) increased by 11.0%.
  • But condo prices (red line) have fallen year on year and are lower than April 2018. And there is no shortage of condos for sale. Condo prices haven’t gone anywhere for three years:

San Diego Metro:

House prices climbed 3.2% in March from February, 19.1% year-over-year, the second hottest annual house price inflation in the current list of property bubbles the most splendid, behind Phoenix. Prices have more than tripled (+ 220%) since 2000:

The charts below are on the same scale as San Diego to show the relative magnitude of house price inflation over the past two decades in each market.

New York subway: soaring prices for low-cost homes, flat condos since 2017.

For the Case-Shiller Index, New York’s vast and diverse subway includes New York City as well as many counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

Overall, house prices were up 0.6% in March from February and are up 12.3% year over year. But by price levels, a massive divergence emerges:

  • Low-level home prices (black line) jumped 17.3% year over year.
  • Top-tier (green line) home prices have recently skyrocketed, after not moving much for nearly a decade, and only recently surpassed their 2006 high.
  • Condo prices (red line) have fallen for the month and are at the same level as in July 2017. Condos are concentrated in Manhattan and in some other markets near Manhattan.

Miami Metro:

House prices jumped 1.8% for the month and 12.2% year over year. They have almost tripled (+ 181%) since 2000, and now correspond to the crazy peak of the real estate bubble 1:

Portland Metro:

House prices jumped 2.5% for the month and 13.5% year-over-year:

Washington DC Metro:

House prices jumped 2.4% in March and 12.2% year-on-year:

Boston Metro:

House prices jumped 2.6% for the month and 14.9% year over year. Not shown in the graph here, but like New York and San Francisco, condo prices haven’t moved much in the past eight months.

Tampa Metro:

House prices rose 1.9% for the month and 13.7% year-over-year:

Denver Metro:

House prices climbed 3.3% for the month and are up 13.4% year over year:

Phoenix Metro:

House prices climbed 3.3% for the month and a saint-moly of 20.0% year-over-year, the hottest annual house price inflation among the hottest property bubbles. splendid here, in front of San Diego and Seattle:

Las Vegas Metro:

House prices jumped 2.3% for the month and 10.6% year-over-year:

Dallas Metro:

House prices jumped 1.7% for the month and 13.4% year over year. The index is up 120% since 2000. In the remaining 20-city Case-Shiller index cities, house price inflation over two decades is less than 120% – for example, Minneapolis is at 101 % and Chicago at 56%. That makes Dallas the latest entry on this list of America’s most splendid home price inflation:

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